Risk Assessment: Escalation of Violence due to Rising Inflation in Nigeria
Risk Assessment: Escalation of Violence due to Rising Inflation in Nigeria
I saw a video where what looks like security agents are fight with members of the public. The video came with this caption “In this economy you re going to collect revenue for the state you have to dig Yr grave first oooo. This is the current situation in Nigeria oct 2 2024. Elofokanbale.
We have carried out risk assessment of this occurrence .
Risk Probability and Severity Scale (Matrix)
Risk Probability Scale
| Probability Level | Description | Likelihood of Occurrence |
|---|---|---|
| Very Low | Event is highly unlikely to occur. It may happen only under extreme or rare circumstances. | Less than 5% chance of occurrence |
| Low | Event is unlikely but possible. It might happen occasionally but not frequently. | 5% to 20% chance of occurrence |
| Medium | Event is somewhat likely. It may occur periodically, especially in certain conditions or situations. | 20% to 50% chance of occurrence |
| High | Event is likely to occur. It may happen frequently or in most circumstances. | 50% to 80% chance of occurrence |
| Very High | Event is almost certain to occur. It is expected in the current environment. | More than 80% chance of occurrence |
Risk Severity Scale
| Severity Level | Description | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Negligible | Minimal impact. The event will cause minor disruption or inconvenience, with little to no long-term effect. | No serious injury, no significant operational disruption |
| Minor | Slight impact. The event may cause small disruptions or damage, but recovery is quick. | Minor injuries, minimal operational or financial impact |
| Moderate | Noticeable impact. The event will cause measurable disruption, injury, or damage, but recovery is possible. | Significant injuries, some operational or financial loss |
| Severe | Serious impact. The event causes major disruption or damage, with long-term consequences. | Serious injuries, significant operational or financial loss |
| Critical | Catastrophic impact. The event leads to a crisis situation, with devastating effects and long-term damage. | Loss of life, business shutdown, major financial losses |
Description of Each Risk Factor
- Probability:
- Very Low: The chance of the event happening is extremely rare. It is almost unexpected unless there is a drastic change in conditions.
- Low: The event is unlikely to occur but could happen under specific, uncommon conditions.
- Medium: The event has a reasonable chance of occurring and may happen occasionally, especially in certain situations.
- High: The event is likely to occur in many situations and is expected to happen frequently.
- Very High: The event is almost certain and is expected to happen in the current environment with very high likelihood.
- Severity:
- Negligible: The event causes no significant harm, and any disruptions or inconveniences are minimal and easy to manage.
- Minor: There is some damage or disruption, but it’s easy to recover from, and the overall effect is small.
- Moderate: The impact is noticeable, leading to injuries or financial loss, but recovery is possible within a reasonable time.
- Severe: The event leads to serious injuries or significant disruption, causing long-term damage or financial loss.
- Critical: The event is disastrous, causing major harm, including loss of life or severe operational and financial consequences. It may result in a business crisis or long-term instability.
| Risk Event | Description of Risk Event | Potential Hazard | Potential Effects of Failure | Probability | Severity | Risk Level | Risk Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Confrontation between Government Agents & Vendors | Government agents collecting revenue from vendors leads to confrontation due to economic tension | Physical altercation between parties | Serious injuries, damage to property, escalation to widespread unrest | High | High | Critical | Increase training in conflict de-escalation for government agents. Implement body cameras and have a legal observer on site. |
| Public Safety Compromised | Bystanders or other market participants get involved in the confrontation | Bystander injuries, potential for mob violence | Public outrage, further injuries, potential deaths, and distrust in government institutions | Medium | Severe | High | Increase police presence in high-risk areas, set up barricades or restricted zones for revenue collection. |
| Legal and Financial Repercussions | Government agent’s excessive force leads to legal action or claims for compensation | Lawsuits, compensation claims, and reputational damage | High costs for the state due to medical expenses and legal fees, and long-term loss of public trust | Medium | High | High | Ensure government agents follow proper protocols. Employ an oversight committee to review actions taken during confrontations. |
| Market Closure or Strike | Vendors protest government action by closing markets or refusing to comply with revenue demands | Market shutdown, loss of business for vendors and economic downturn | Disruptions to supply chains, loss of revenue for vendors, heightened economic crisis | Medium | Moderate | Medium | Implement a grievance redress system to allow vendors to voice concerns and negotiate. Review and adjust revenue collection policies to reduce tensions. |
| Medical Emergency Due to Injury | Serious injury to either a government agent or vendor during physical confrontation | Immediate medical emergency, long-term health complications | Long-term disability or death, increased healthcare costs, potential for lawsuits against the government | Medium | High | High | Provide government agents with non-lethal protective equipment and ensure on-site medical personnel for high-risk revenue collection operations. |
| Social Media Backlash and Unrest | Viral videos of the confrontation trigger widespread outrage online | Public perception of government abuse of power | Further protests, widespread unrest, potential damage to government credibility and long-term stability | High | Moderate | High | Monitor social media for early signs of unrest and develop a rapid-response communication strategy to address misinformation and present facts. |
| Revenue Collection Sabotage | Vendors begin to sabotage government revenue collection efforts | Destruction of property, deliberate non-compliance | Reduction in state revenue, increased tension between government and vendors | Medium | Severe | High | Negotiate with vendors for an amicable solution, introduce incentive programs for compliance, and provide security escorts to collection teams. |
Safety Requirements:
- Conflict De-escalation Training: All government agents involved in revenue collection must undergo mandatory training on non-violent conflict resolution techniques.
- On-site Medical Support: Ensure that revenue collection teams are accompanied by paramedics or equipped with first-aid supplies to respond immediately to injuries.
- Public Communication Strategy: Implement a media team responsible for publicizing the correct context of revenue collection activities and addressing public concerns promptly.
- Legal Oversight and Review: Set up an independent committee to review all incidents of violence during revenue collection activities to ensure that government agents act within legal boundaries.
- Community Engagement: Develop a platform for vendors and government officials to engage in dialogue, ensuring that policies are explained and grievances can be addressed before escalation occurs.
- Use of Non-lethal Equipment: Equip revenue collection agents with non-lethal tools such as pepper spray or batons, while prohibiting the use of firearms in densely populated areas to avoid lethal outcomes.
- Incident Reporting Mechanism: Implement a reporting and monitoring system for both government agents and vendors to submit complaints about inappropriate actions or violence during these confrontations.
- Increased Security: Increase police or security personnel presence in highly tense areas, where confrontations are most likely to occur, to prevent escalation and ensure safety.
